The bet wasn't with this guy - that was for somethin' else. [He can say that much because he was there for the ritual that resulted from it.] As far as I can tell, the realms are totally unrelated.

...But you've got a fair point about the other stuff. 'Treading carefully' also isn't a big part of her game plan. If I had to make a bet, I'd wager she doesn't have a clue what's going on right now.